Oscar® Predictions (2023) ELIMINATIONS

This is my list of films that I predict will NOT receive a Best Picture Nomination for the 95th Annual Academy Awards.

And although these are among the best films released this year, I do not believe these films will have the financial backing to campaign against the juggernaut studios and the legacy producers releasing their best work yet.

1. RRR | Rise Roar Revolt (SS Rajamouli deserves a best director nomination, in my opinion)
2. After Yang — This dystopian thriller was filmed so beautifully, but it won’t be able to compete.
3. Cha Cha Real Smooth — This film was well-written, well-directed and well-performed. But it will be shut-out of the noms.
4. Sundown — Tim Roth stuns in this introverted horror thriller about a terminally-ill man who disconnects himself from the outside world so that he can die in peace. But this film is all but forgotten.
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once — This is undisputedly one of the bet films of the year. But A24 will be outmatched against the enterprise of campaigns that overshadowed its previous films, like The Lighthouse and Uncut Gems which were snubbed. I think Michelle Yeoh is guaranteed a Best Leading Actress nom and the supporting cast will have to duke it out for their rightful spots.
6. Nitram — When it comes to performances, the actors in this film outdid themselves. This film doesn’t have the buzz it deserves. Caleb Landry Jones, Judy Davis, Essie Davis and Anthony LaPaglia deserve spots in the acting categories and I hope this film gets a screenplay nom. But as far as Best Picture, it’s not getting in.
7. Men — I think when this film is studied some time in the future, it will be understood. As it stands, it’s too divisive to stomach, especially the Third Act. However, Jessie Buckley and Rory Kinnear gave the most frightening performances of the year.
8. Crimes of the Future — I think David Cronenberg has a healthy obsession with genre bending and experimentation with filmmaking and it should be rewarded. But there has only been a handful of horror films nominated for Oscars since 1973’s Exorcist. And only 1 has ever one — Silence of the Lambs. This film may go completely un-nominated, unfortunately.
9. Official Competition — This is a Spanish satirical comedy starring Penelope Cruz and Antonio Banderas is oddly enough about Awards bait, legacy and the extreme measures filmmakers go to express their art. It’s a delicious Art House film, but it’ll be ignored.
10. The Forgiven — Unfortunately, this film failed to find an audience, but it is one of the most stylish and exotic films of the year. It’s a grueling portrait of colonization and exploitation. Ralph Fiennes, Ismael Kanater and Jessica Chastain are exceptional in it. But, this won’t get a second look.
11. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On — This is a touching story about a resourceful mollusk that reminds us how important human connection is. It’s such a long shot for a Best Picture nomination, but this is a beautifully captured film.
12. Nope — Jordan Peele continues to prove that he ranks among the greatest narrative storytellers today. I think the only nom this may get is cinematography because Hoyte van Hoytema captured some of the best shots on film this year. But, a film that requires multiple views to understand is likely to be shut out of the Best Picture race.
13. The Woman King — I haven’t seen this film yet, but I don’t think it will be nominated for Best Picture because once the discourse starts highlighting the truth about the Dahomey Empire and reveal this as a commercialized revision of the actual history, the campaign to get a nom will end. Might Viola captivate the nominee committee with her performance? Sure. But a Best Picture nom? Nope.
14. Blonde — Based off the narrative that this isn’t a biopic, but fan fiction, and Ana de Armas’ accent in the trailer, I don’t know if this film will be any good. Plan B is producing it so it may get some campaigning. But as far as Netflix — after it blew all that money last year on The Power of the Dog only to lose Best Pic to CODA — I don’t think it’s putting money behind Blonde.
15. Elvis — Austin Butler is the best thing about this film. He deserves a best acting nom and has all but sewn up his spot. But as far as the movie goes, it isn’t good. Visually and structurally, it’s all over the place. Baz Luhrmann didn’t give us his best this go-round and for that, it will not receive a Best Picture nomination.
16. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — This has all the elements of Best Picture bait — the same way “Don’t Look Up” had last year. Assembled are some great actors. And it already has a built-in audience that’s likely to grow. But it has too much going against it — chief among them: Netflix. Netflix is not going to throw 10s of millions of dollars behind campaigns the way it had in the past. And, this film is only getting a theatrical release. It deserves more free press than that. And, it’s a sequel.
17. The Batman — This is tricky because I think Matt Reeves deserves a Best Director nomination. This iteration of Batman ranks among the best. It’s comic hero done right. Further, this is one of the best portrayals of Batman in a long time. The visuals, the score, the story, the pacing — this is all around a great film. Any other year — maybe, but this year the competition is too stiff. I don’t think it gets a Best Pic nomination.
18. The Northman — This remains my absolute favorite film of the year. It is a masterpiece among masterpieces. It has all the elements of Best Picture — well-produced, well-performed, well-directed, well-captured, well-scored, well-written. There was no better film released this year. And I’m glad it’s finally reaching audiences that missed it in theaters. But no industry gatekeepers are talking about The Northman. It’s not even ranked as a contender on mainstream lists. That’s a shame.
19. Top Gun: Maverick — Maverick is currently the 7th highest domestic box office grosser of all time, unseating Avengers: Infinity War. That’s a major feat. But, there has to be a snub and this will be the biggest this year. The Academy doesn’t respect Tom Cruise, in my opinion.

He doesn’t play the game — not that he has to, but he doesn’t. He’s a fandom filmmaker. He makes films exclusively for fans. And, he’s been snubbed too many times over the years. He doesn’t even have an honorary Oscar — imagine that. And, returning his Golden Globes (rightfully) last year may reflect unfavorably on him.

Besides, No Way Home should’ve been nominated for Best Picture last year and it was outright snubbed. The fan favorite throwaway was a disaster. I get the sense that Maverick will see the same fate — fan favorite.

All of these films have elements of greatness, but gaging the temperature of the industry gatekeepers, critics and cinephiles who are attending the festivals and already ranking the Oscar bait unlisted here, this will be a cutthroat campaign year in which these films won’t survive.