Kristen Stewart was snubbed for a SAG nomination, but she will surely receive her first Oscar nomination this year.
She was otherwise dominating earlier in awards season, but lost some ground after being shutout from SAG and after losing the Globe to Nicole Kidman.
Normally that would be a sign that Kristen’s in jeopardy of an Oscar nomination. But she’ll most certainly get a nom, even though the race has tightened and she’s no longer the frontrunner and shoo-in to win.
But who’ll get the other 4 slots?
I think it’s impossible for The Academy [nominating branch for Actors] to ignore the stellar performances of Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker in the “Eyes of Tammy Faye” and Nicole Kidman’s fantastic performance as Lucille Ball in “Being the Ricardos”. Without a doubt, they’ll get nominated.
But the other two spots are up for grabs. I’m personally rooting for Jennifer Hudson in the same way I was rooting for Renee Zellweger who portrayed the iconic Judy Garland in “Judy”.
Jennifer gave a similar, career-invigorating performance as Aretha Franklin in “Respect”.
And hopefully she’s in for 2 noms this year. One in the Best Actress category and one for Best Original Song. Jennifer beautifully sings, “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” still in character as the Queen of Soul. It’s very reminiscent of Aretha’s rendition of “Bridge Over Troubled Waters” from her live Gospel album. Jennifer deserves that 4th spot, but she’ll have to fight for it.
Because gunning for that spot is spoiler queen — Olivia Colman — who plays Leda in Maggie Gyllenhaul’s adaptation of the Italian novella “The Lost Daughter”.
Olivia delivers a masterful performance as a professor vacationing in Greece who befriends a wayward young mother in which she shares commonalities, resurrecting trauma she herself suffered as a child and as a mother trapped in a marriage with two daughters of her own. I don’t see how that performance can be ignored, but crazier things have happened.
The last coveted spot is a battleground. Lady Gaga versus Penelope Cruz.
Lady Gaga is campaigning more fervently than anyone at this point. But there are so many issues with her performance in “The House of Gucci,” including her accent and soapy portrayal of convicted killer Patrizia Reggiani.
She does, however, have a leg-up on Penelope. Gaga was nominated for the Globe, SAG and made the BAFTA longlist. Penelope was snubbed completely.
Penelope Cruz is fantastic in Pedro Almodovar’s Spanish film “Parallel Mothers” about a fashion photographer named Janis who becomes a new mother in her 40s and befriends a teen named Ana who was impregnated from sexual assault. Janis and Ana bond while they recover in the postpartum delivery room and exchange contact info.
[SPOILERS — next 2 paragraphs]
Janis eventually learns that her baby and Ana’s baby were switched in the neonatal room at the hospital, but Ana doesn’t know.
When Janis asks Ana how her baby’s doing, Ana tells her the devastating news that she died a crib death. Janis then has to fathom living without the baby she’s been raising. But she must. So she hires Ana as an au pair, mentors her on how to cook, clean and care for a child and gives them time to bond before breaking the devastating news and relinquishing custody.
Penelope put her heart and soul into this role. Her performance is both gut-wrenching and mesmerizing — one of the best of the year.
Gaga’s performance in “The House of Gucci” doesn’t rise to the level of Oscar-worthy the way Penelope’s does. I believe Penelope is more deserving of the nomination over Gaga.
Gaga has been nominated 3 times and won in 2019 for Best Original Song, “Shallow” from “A Star is Born”.
Penelope was nominated previously for 3 Oscars. In 2007, she was nominated for “Volver”. She won a Supporting Actress Oscar in 2009 for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”. And was nominated in 2010 for “Nine”.
All of the first-tier hopefuls, except Kristen, have been down this road before.
Jessica Chastain has been nominated for an Oscar twice — for “The Help” in 2012 and “Zero Dark Thirty” in 2013.
Jennifer Hudson was nominated and won her first Best Supporting Actress Oscar in 2007 for “Dreamgirls”. Hopefully this year, she’ll have 3 Oscar nominations in her portfolio.
Olivia was nominated last year for “The Father” and won in 2019 for “The Favourite”.
Nicole has been nominated for an Oscar a whopping four times. In 2002, she was nominated for “Moulin Rouge”. She won in 2003 for “The Hours”. She was nominated twice more — in 2011 for “The Rabbit Hole” and 2017 for “Lion”. This will be Nicole’s fifth Oscar nom.
Other standout performances of the year were from Ann Dowd in “Mass”, Jodie Comer in “The Last Duel”, Ruth Negga in “Passing”, Halle Berry in “Bruised”, Rachel Zegler in “West Side Story”, Jennifer Lawrence in “Don’t Look Up”, Alana Haim in “Licorice Pizza” and Frances McDormand in “The Tragedy of Macbeth”.
Although all of their performances were outstanding, the first-tier performances are near-impossible for them to penetrate.
So definites are:
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
The battle royale comes down to:
Jennifer Hudson (Respect) vs Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
and
Lady Gaga (The House of Gucci) vs Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
My final predictions are:
Kristen Stewart
Nicole Kidman
Jessica Chastain
Jennifer Hudson
&
Penelope Cruz
At this point in the season, it’s Nicole Kidman’s Oscar to lose. They will have 6 weeks to campaign once the Oscar nominations are announced on February 8th. The BAFTA nominations will be announced a month later, which could change the trajectory of the race again.
